Coronavirus

Alabama Death Rates Near Highs, but New Case Rates Continue Falling

It’s been said by health officials numerous times since the COVID-19 pandemic began that the rate of deaths is a lagging indicator compared to the rate of increase in new cases. That assertion is proving true at the moment, as the moving averages of daily deaths in Alabama attributed to the virus are near record highs, while the averages of new positive tests continue to fall for the third straight week.

Those trends come as the state passed the 100,000 mark in total COVID-19 cases on Wednesday.

In BirminghamWatch’s weekly analysis of data reported by the Alabama Department of Public Health, the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases stood at 1,289.29 per day. That’s down by more than 168 cases from the previous week and almost 563 lower than the record high on July 19.

The longer-term 14-day average is at 1,373.5, down by 152 from the week before. The percentage increase in the number of new positives was up by an average of 1.33% per day over the past seven days, down from a peak of 3.18% on July 15. For Tuesday and Wednesday, the daily increase was below 1%.

The total positive cases statewide stands at 100,801. That’s an increase of 9,025 cases over seven days, which is about a thousand fewer than the previous week.

The doubling rate — the time needed for the cumulative total to double — is now 51.19 days, the slowest rate since the statistic was first calculated. Alabama had been projected to cross the 100,000 total-case mark on Aug. 4, but the slowing rate of cases meant the milestone was not reached until eight days later.

This week, another Alabama sports legend announced he had tested positive for COVID-19. Vestavia Hills High School football coach Buddy Anderson, the winningest prep coach in the history of Alabama, confirmed Tuesday that he and his wife were found positive. Anderson told WBRC-TV that he noticed that he couldn’t smell his wife’s chicken as it cooked; he then tried to smell his aftershave and couldn’t. Since the loss of sense of smell is a common symptom of COVID-19, Anderson decided the two of them should be tested. He confirmed the findings after the school announced that unnamed members of the team, including some players, had tested positive and the Rebels would cancel their first two games of the season.

On July 31, former Alabama Crimson Tide athletic director Bill Battle was hospitalized at UAB after a positive test and subsequent illness. Battle said in a press statement that his doctors expect him to recover fully.

Alabama’s daily positivity rate is also trending downward, with the 7-day average falling to 14.7%, a drop of 2.74% over the period. The 14-day moving average is at 11%, falling from 12.69% seven days ago. The rate is still well above the 5% level considered to be ideal by multiple health authorities. Several states have imposed mandatory quarantines on travelers from Alabama and other states based on high positivity rates.

The 7-day average of tests administered improved to 8,768.86 as of Wednesday, with a cumulative total of 785,964 tests given in Alabama since the outbreak began.

Deaths Still Increasing

The main trend that is not going in the state’s favor is the death toll, which increased to 1,814 in the past seven days, up 175 from the previous week. The 7-day average of deaths reported each day has risen to 25, up by more than 3½ per day over the week and two below the record of 27 set  July 27. The 14-day moving average also has risen slightly to 23.21 over the week-ago average.

Jefferson County continues to lead Alabama in the number of total cases with 13,463 in the past week. That’s an increase of 1,277, or 10.4%, in that period and an average of 182.42 new cases per day. The average is down slightly from the previous week and is the second-highest in the state.

Jefferson County had 31 new deaths in the week, bringing its total to 261 deaths attributed to COVID-19, which also is the highest in the state.

Mobile County is second for total cases with 10,671, an increase of 1,402 from last week. Its 7-day average is 200.28, down by almost 25, or -11%, but still the highest statewide. The county has had 216 COVID-related deaths overall, with 12 of those happening last week.

Montgomery County is third with 6,955 cases. That is up 605, or 9.5%, from the week before. The county has 153 COVID-related deaths, up by five in the past week.

Madison County is fourth in total cases at 5,510, an increase of 388 cases in the period. But its 7-day average fell sharply to 55.42, down almost a hundred from last week.

Tuscaloosa County is fifth with 4,327 total cases, up by 325 from last week. It has had 80 COVID-related deaths, 11 in the past week.

The number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Alabama fell by nine from a week ago. As of Tuesday, ADPH reported 1,506 COVID-19 patients were in hospitals statewide. The 7-day moving average of 1,546.29 patients is down by 32 from the previous Tuesday. The 7-day average of new hospitalizations stood at 138.57 as of Tuesday, falling by almost 34 patients per day.

Birmingham Watch computes the moving averages based the data updated daily by the ADPH.