The efforts to reopen Alabama’s economy continue this week, as Gov. Kay Ivey relaxed more regulations in her “Safer-at-Home” initiative. In the process of deciding what to open and when, state and health officials continue to look at data to see what effects the regulations have on the number of COVID-19 cases reported and deaths attributed to the disease.

The question is: which pieces of data are government officials using to gauge the effects?

The Alabama Department of Public Health’s COVID-19 web page shows the raw number of cases and deaths continue to increase, and the number of additional cases each day has been 221 or more for the seven-day period of May 7-13.

Those daily-increase numbers have fluctuated significantly in that period, while a seven-day moving average over that time has stayed between 282 and 293 per day. While moving averages tend to smooth out bumps in data sometimes caused by reporting issues, it is still fluctuating — trending upward a bit again after topping out near 305 new cases on average per day on April 15.

But those raw numbers will tend to increase more as additional tests are administered across the state, so another way to look for trends is to use the percentage increase in cases. The daily figures show a general downward trend beginning May 2, when the number of positive cases went up by 4.17%. The daily percentage increases stayed in the 3% range for a week and have trended downward to 2.21% on Wednesday — the third-lowest percentage since the pandemic began. The seven-day moving average showed a peak of 3.54% on May 8 and has trended downward each day since.

State officials have not said what data trends they would consider as indicating success in the battle against COVID-19. Moreover, it takes generally five days to two weeks for symptoms to appear after exposure to the virus, so effects of changes are not immediately known.

As of late Wednesday night, the figures posted by the Alabama Department of Public Health on its COVID-19 web page show that 10,700 people have tested positive, and 450 deaths have been attributed to the virus. The positive case total passed the 10,000 mark on Monday, the same day that the statewide death toll surpassed 400.

The seven-day moving average of daily new cases stood at 287.00 on Wednesday, after moving in a short range during the previous week. The moving average of new deaths was 15.29; that number has trended upward for three weeks.

In county-by-county numbers, Mobile County once again has the most cases and deaths, with the margin increasing further over Jefferson County. Mobile County has tallied 1,545 positive cases versus Jefferson County’s 1,199. In the previous week, Jefferson County tested almost 7,000 additional people.

Mobile County has 96 COVID-19 deaths, 20 more than the previous week, compared to 64 in Jefferson, which was up nine from the previous week.

There was a big relative increase in Tallapoosa County, up to 51 deaths from 23 last week — a 122% hike. Lee County is fourth with 30, which is up 1; and Chambers County is fifth with 22, the same number of deaths it had last week.

In metro Birmingham, Shelby County reports 18 deaths, two more than last week. Tuscaloosa doubled to eight, and St. Clair remained at one. Bibb County reported its first death, while Walker and Blount counties still have reported no deaths due to the virus.

Here is the Health Department’s full list of counties with number of cases, number of tests for the disease and deaths.

Autauga					93	1336	4
Baldwin					231	5010	7
Barbour					69	481	1
Bibb					46	981	1
Blount					45	1031	0
Bullock					28	170	1
Butler					230	867	6
Calhoun					127	2447	3
Chambers					324	1364	22
Cherokee					24	447	0
Chilton					73	903	1
Choctaw					72	255	2
Clarke					65	640	1
Clay					27	363	1
Cleburne					13	146	1
Coffee					158	1192	1
Colbert					74	1563	2
Conecuh					16	212	0
Coosa					33	213	1
Covington					56	755	1
Crenshaw					48	428	1
Cullman					67	1864	0
Dale					53	691	0
Dallas					129	1165	3
DeKalb					179	1719	2
Elmore					157	1790	5
Escambia					38	802	3
Etowah					197	2954	10
Fayette					9	394	0
Franklin					270	1201	3
Geneva					17	362	0
Greene					74	346	4
Hale					74	570	2
Henry					33	293	1
Houston					115	1753	4
Jackson					60	1862	2
Jefferson					1199	25095	64
Lamar					14	348	0
Lauderdale					102	2563	2
Lawrence					26	465	0
Lee					436	4167	30
Limestone					60	1563	0
Lowndes					111	323	8
Macon					53	417	2
Madison					259	10674	4
Marengo					91	750	5
Marion					100	1081	9
Marshall					586	3977	9
Mobile					1545	13113	96
Monroe					18	344	2
Montgomery					705	4586	19
Morgan					99	2442	1
Perry					19	379	0
Pickens					70	610	2
Pike					102	937	0
Randolph					117	677	7
Russell					88	782	0
Shelby					381	5857	18
St. Clair					87	1986	1
Sumter					110	588	4
Talladega					76	1917	2
Tallapoosa					338	1896	51
Tuscaloosa					302	6010	8
Unknown or Out of State					N/A	3215	N/A
Walker					111	1556	0
Washington					57	334	5
Wilcox					89	305	5
Winston					25	576	0
	Cases: 10700	Tested: 138103	Deaths: 450