As the COVID-19 pandemic enters its third month, the number of positive cases reported by the state and the number of deaths attributed to the virus have taken some erratic turns, especially in the past few days.

One thing is presently clear, however: the data is not yet moving in the direction that state health officials would like, particularly as Gov. Kay Ivey’s moves to relax restrictions have been in place long enough to have a possible effect on the data.

The seven-day moving average of new cases reported each day has set a new high since that average was first calculated by BirminghamWatch on March 19.

In the past seven-day period, the number of new cases each day has grown markedly, with two of the highest daily increases falling in that time frame. Wednesday’s new-case numbers showed a big jump over 24 hours — 676 new positive results, which is more than 50% higher than the previous high of 424 new cases on April 11. Furthermore, the seven-day period began with an increase of 401 cases on Thursday, May 14, the third-highest daily increase.

As of late Wednesday night, the figures posted by the Alabama Department of Public Health show that 13,052 people have tested positive and 522 deaths have been attributed to the virus. That’s an increase of 2,352 positive cases (up just less than 22%) from last week and 72 deaths (up 16%).

The seven-day moving average of daily new cases finished the period at 336.00. That’s 49 cases per day more than the average for the week ending May 13.

But the moving average of new deaths per day was 10.29 in the current period, which is a sharp decline from the 15.29 average in the previous seven days. Three days out of the past seven had a total of just six deaths reported.

The trend upward in most data sets is causing some alarm for State Health Officer Dr. Scott Harris, who commented in an interview with the Alabama Political Reporter on May 17 that “(t)he numbers are not headed in the right direction, especially in some parts of the state.”

It’s been 10 days since Ivey released her amended “Safer at Home” order that allows restaurants to reopen with limited table seating, close-contact service providers such as barber shops and hair salons to operate under certain guidelines, and Gulf Coast beaches to open to unlimited gatherings, as long as the six-foot separation rule is observed. The first wave of openings, allowing stores and businesses to reopen with restrictions and elective medical procedures to resume, took effect May 1.

The general rule of thumb is that COVID-19 takes five days to about two weeks to incubate, so increases in positive cases and deaths plausibly could be linked to relaxed restrictions. UAB doctors said Wednesday that they are not sure whether the increases in confirmed COVID-19 cases are a result of testing more people or increased community transmission, but either way it prompted them to urge people to continue social distancing and hygiene practices.

Cases by County

Mobile County still remains atop the county numbers in both positive cases and deaths, with 1,822 cases among 16,902 people tested and 106 deaths, which is 10 more than last week. Jefferson County tallied 1,433 positives in 30,856 tests and had 83 deaths, up by 19.

Montgomery County has seen a marked uptick in positive cases with 994, third highest in the state. Marshall County now ranks fourth with 641 cases, followed by Lee County with 461. In the Birmingham area, Tuscaloosa has reported 431 cases (sixth in the state), Shelby County has 414 (seventh), Walker County has 164, St. Clair County 95, Bibb County 52 and Blount County has 47. Shelby County reports 19 deaths, Tuscaloosa County has tallied eight, while Walker, Bibb, St. Clair and Blount counties have reported one death each.

Here is the full list of counties with number of cases, number of tests for the disease and deaths.

Autauga					136	1604	3
Baldwin					270	6361	8
Barbour					96	595	1
Bibb					52	1127	1
Blount					47	1222	1
Bullock					64	259	1
Butler					312	1182	11
Calhoun					136	2915	3
Chambers					331	1286	23
Cherokee					30	531	0
Chilton					83	1130	1
Choctaw					129	386	3
Clarke					89	855	2
Clay					27	421	2
Cleburne					13	194	1
Coffee					184	1445	1
Colbert					110	2050	2
Conecuh					22	268	0
Coosa					33	234	1
Covington					59	960	1
Crenshaw					52	580	2
Cullman					71	2250	0
Dale					71	910	0
Dallas					172	1529	3
DeKalb					206	1573	3
Elmore					226	2367	7
Escambia					39	968	3
Etowah					223	3591	10
Fayette					9	466	0
Franklin					399	1575	5
Geneva					26	499	0
Greene					86	423	4
Hale					106	677	2
Henry					48	356	1
Houston					149	2609	3
Jackson					66	2074	2
Jefferson					1433	30856	83
Lamar					15	400	0
Lauderdale					117	3230	2
Lawrence					35	551	0
Lee					461	5137	32
Limestone					69	1727	0
Lowndes					155	442	10
Macon					58	527	2
Madison					285	12685	4
Marengo					118	1097	6
Marion					108	1251	10
Marshall					641	4690	9
Mobile					1822	16902	106
Monroe					22	437	2
Montgomery					994	6413	27
Morgan					132	3020	1
Perry					23	475	0
Pickens					86	792	4
Pike					121	1136	0
Randolph					120	829	7
Russell					116	1152	0
Shelby					414	7427	19
St. Clair					95	2591	1
Sumter					164	823	5
Talladega					82	2467	2
Tallapoosa					379	2408	59
Tuscaloosa					431	7234	8
Unknown or Out of State					N/A	0	N/A
Walker					164	2227	1
Washington					62	448	5
Wilcox					108	456	6
Winston					50	818	0
	Cases: 13052	Tested: 168120	Deaths: 522