As health officials worldwide cast a wary eye on the newly discovered omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus, the delta strain continues to account for the vast majority of new cases in Alabama.

In BirminghamWatch’s periodic analysis of the spread of COVID throughout the state, the number of daily new cases has risen from reports covering the Thanksgiving holiday period. However, the amount of fluctuation in the numbers caused by health agency staffers taking time off during that period is unclear.

The 7-day moving average of new COVID cases stands at 352.86 per day as of Thursday. That’s up from 283 on Tuesday, the lowest level the average has seen since July 7, but it also is down by 21% from the average of 444.43 a week ago. The average has been in a steady decline since Sept. 1, when the pandemic all-time record of 5,538 cases per day was set at the height of the delta-variant surge.

The longer-term 14-day average of new cases continued its decline as well, standing at 398.64 Thursday, down 14% over the previous seven days. In total, 847,064 cases of COVID have been reported in Alabama since pandemic records began on March 13, 2020.

Deaths attributed to the virus have continued to decrease as well, with the 7-day average falling below 10 per day for the first time since Aug. 5. There were 42 deaths across the state in the week ending Thursday, an average of six per day. That’s 40% lower than the week-ago average.

The cumulative statewide death toll is now up to 16,157.

Hospitalizations are up slightly since Alabamians returned to their usual routines after Thanksgiving. Thursday’s tally by the Alabama Hospital Association showed 331 beds occupied by COVID patients, an increase over the recent low of 271 on Thanksgiving Day. At the height of the delta surge in early September, 2,890 COVID patients were hospitalized, but the figure has hovered around the 300 mark for nearly a month.

Mostly Moderate Spread

Alabama remains in the moderate category for the overall level of community transmission. The positivity rate — the percentage of COVID tests that return positive results — is up to 5.7%, just over the lower limit for a moderate rating. The number of daily new cases per capita stands at 7.02 per 100,000 residents, down slightly from the previous week; that reading is in the low category.

In the Birmingham metro area, Blount and Walker counties have a high community transmission level. Blount County’s positivity rate is 10.7%, which puts it in the high category, while Walker has a high per-capita caseload. The Alabama Department of Public Health categorizes counties and the state as a whole on the less favorable of the two readings.

Eight counties are categorized as having high levels of community transmission, while five are rated as low. ADPH categories are in four steps — low, moderate, substantial and high.

Twenty counties have substantial community spread of the disease, leaving half of the state in the moderate range.

Last week, the first cases of a new variant of the COVID-19 virus were discovered in South Africa and Botswana, with later reports from several other countries. The World Health Organization designated the strain as a variant of concern and assigned the Greek letter omicron as its identifier.

As of Thursday evening, at least six cases of omicron infections have been reported in the United States — two in California and one each in Minnesota, Colorado, New York and Hawaii.

All three people had been fully vaccinated for COVID. Health officials are trying to determine whether current formulations of COVID vaccines are effective against the omicron strain.

BirminghamWatch uses data for its analyses provided by the Alabama Department of Public Health and the Alabama Hospital Association.