Repeating Pattern on Steroids: Spikes in Omicron Numbers Similar to Earlier COVID-19 Surges but Dropping Much More Quickly
The big spike in new daily cases of the omicron variant of COVID-19 is now being followed with an equally fast drop, while death numbers are rising roughly four two six weeks after cases reached new heights. To those who have been following the rise and fall of numbers during the pandemic, this should sound familiar. Omicron data is following much of the same patterns established when the original version of COVID, sometimes referred to as the alpha variant, spread throughout the world in late 2020 and early 2021. That pattern repeated during the summer as the delta variant spiked, as well. The omicron surge reached its peak Jan. 22, when the 7-day moving average of new cases topped out at 13,410 cases per day. That’s more than 2½ times the previous record of 5,538 set by delta reached on Sept. 1, 2021, and more than triple the highest average during the original surge on Jan. 10 of last year. In both of the earlier surges, the averages made steady declines over the following 10 to 13 weeks. After the alpha surge peak, 7-day averages fell by more than 90% and were down to 121 per day just after Independence Day. For delta, the averages sank by 95% just after Thanksgiving Day, then the case numbers started to increase again as omicron became the prevalent strain. The rise of omicron cases has been about the same in duration as the previous surges, but the decline is quicker. From the peak just 18 days ago, the 7-day average had dropped to 3,533 as of Wednesday, a fall of almost three-fourths. Read more.
