Better Days: Alabama COVID-19 Numbers Are Headed in the Right Direction


The percentage increase in the number of new positives increased by an average of 0.82% per day over the past seven days, the lowest level of increase since the pandemic began.

The total of positive cases statewide stands at 106,784 as of Wednesday, an increase of 5,983 cases over seven days and more than 3,000 fewer new cases than the previous week. The doubling rate is now 84.73 days, which means it will take until nearly the end of November for the total to double again at the current rate. That’s the second-slowest rate since the statistic was first calculated; the best figure came the day before (95 days).

The positivity rate now stands at 6.74%, not far from the record low of 3.04% on May 1. The new rate is also just above the “ideal rate” of 5%, as determined by Johns Hopkins University. The rate is often cited by other states when they determine if visitors from such states should face a quarantine when travelling to their states. Currently, the states of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and Pennsylvania, as well as the city of Chicago, require persons entering from Alabama to quarantine for 14 days after arriving. (Kentucky requests a 14-day quarantine but does not mandate it, and Alabama will likely be removed from the restricted list next week after the positivity rate fell below 15%.)

The 7-day average of tests administered increased sharply to 12,689.29 as of Wednesday, up by more than 4,000 from the previous week. The cumulative total of tests given in Alabama since the outbreak began now stands at 880,652, with 94,688 tests given in the last seven days.

The state death toll rose to 1,876, but the 7-day moving average of new death reports fell to 8.86 per day, the first time the average is below 10 since July 1. The 14-day average is now 16.93 new deaths per day, but that should fall soon after five of the past seven days showed only single-digit reports.

Jefferson County still logs more cases than any other county in Alabama with 14,337, increasing by 874 (6.5%) in the past week and an average of 124.85 new cases per day. The average is down significantly from the previous week.

Mobile County is second for total cases with 11,264, an increase of 593 (5.5%) but less than half the new cases of the week prior; its 7-day average is 84.71, down by more than a hundred. Montgomery County is third with cases, up 302 (4.3%) from the week before; that increase is exactly half of the previous week with an average of 43.14 per day. Madison County is fourth in total cases at 5,769, an increase of 259 new cases in the period with a 7-day average of 37. Tuscaloosa County is fifth with 4,617 total cases, up by 290 (41.42 moving average).

Jefferson County had 11 new deaths in the week and now totals 272 deaths attributed to COVID-19, the highest in the state. Mobile County has 230 deaths overall with 14 last week, and Montgomery County remains at 153 after reporting no deaths last week. Tuscaloosa County is fourth in the state with 85 deaths, with five last week. Tallapoosa County is still fifth on the list with 79 deaths, but also had no new deaths reported in the last seven days.

The number of confirmed hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Alabama dropped significantly from a week ago. As of Tuesday, ADPH reported 1,278 patients, down by 228, and the 7-day moving average of 1,311.43 patients is down by 234 from the previous Tuesday, August 12. The 7-day average of new hospitalizations stood at 131.71 as of Tuesday, roughly seven fewer than the previous week.

Birmingham Watch computes the moving averages based the data updated daily by the ADPH.