Coronavirus

Continued Improvement in Key Alabama COVID-19 Numbers

As health officials keep a wary eye on data with college students returning to campuses, the COVID-19 numbers for Alabama keep heading in favorable directions.

In BirminghamWatch’s weekly analysis of data reported by the Alabama Department of Public Health, the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases was 763.14 per day for the week ending Aug. 26. That’s down by more than 91 cases from the previous week. The average of new cases has fallen almost 60% from the record high in July.

The longer-term 14-day average is at 808.93, down by 263.07 from the week before, a drop of 25% in one week. The percentage increase in the number of new positives increased by an average of 0.69% per day over the past seven days, down from 0.82% last week. It’s now at the lowest level of daily increase since the pandemic began.

The total of positive cases statewide stands at 112,126 as of Wednesday, an increase of 5,342 cases over seven days. The doubling rate is now up to 102.31 days, which means it would take more than three months for the total to double again at this rate. That’s the slowest doubling rate since the figure was first computed April 1.

The 7-day average positivity rate, which is the percentage of positive results from all tests conducted, is 9.56%, a significant jump from the 6.74% level on Aug. 19. That increase may be attributable in part to a sharp drop in testing numbers in the past week. The 7-day average fell to 7,986, well below the record high of 13,330 set six days ago.

The 14-day positivity rate average, however, is at 5.67%, which is just above the “ideal rate” of 5%, as determined by Johns Hopkins University. The rate is often cited by other states when they determine whether visitors from such states should face a quarantine when travelling to their states.

The cumulative total of tests given in Alabama since the outbreak began now stands at 920,989, with 40,337 tests given in the past seven days. That’s less than half the 94,688 tests administered in the previous week.

The state death toll moved up to 1,965, and the 7-day moving average of new death reports rose to 12.71 per day. That’s well above the 8.86 per day from a week prior, but that average was an outlier from most of the last two weeks, thanks in part to inconsistent death numbers reported. By contrast, the 14-day average is now 10.76 new deaths per day, a marked decrease from the 16.93 figure indicated on Aug. 19.

Jefferson County again tallied more cases than any other county in Alabama with 15,068, increasing by 731, or 5.1%, in the past week and an average of 104.42 new cases per day. The average is down by 20 cases per day from the previous week.

Mobile County is second for total cases with 11,731, an increase of 467, or 4.1%. Its 7-day average is 66.71, down by 18.

Montgomery County is third in cases with 7,497, Madison County fourth at 6,008, and Tuscaloosa County is fifth with 4,899 cases, up by 282 compared to 290 last week.

Tuscaloosa garnered attention Monday when Mayor Walt Maddox closed bars in the city for two weeks, citing a spike in COVID-19 cases since the University of Alabama reopened. The university also imposed restrictions on social gatherings on and off campus plus access to fraternity and sorority housing. Dean of the College of Community Health Services Ricky Friend told The Crimson White that “sentinel testing” has begun, with 1,000 tests per day scheduled. More than 500 cases of COVID have been diagnosed on campus since school resumed.

Jefferson County had 13 new deaths in the week and now totals 285 deaths attributed to COVID-19, again the highest county death toll in Alabama. Mobile County has 246 deaths overall with 16 last week, and Montgomery County increased by three to 156. Tuscaloosa County ranks fourth in the state with 87 deaths, up by two from last week. Tallapoosa County remains fifth on the list with 79 deaths, but it has gone two straight weeks with no reported COVID-19 deaths.

Confirmed hospitalized COVID-19 patient numbers fell statewide for the second consecutive week. As of Tuesday, ADPH reported 1,097 patients, down by 181. The 7-day moving average of 1,130 patients is down by 181.43 from the previous Tuesday. The 7-day average of new hospitalizations dropped sharply to 82.71 as of Tuesday, down by 49 from the previous week.

Birmingham Watch computes the moving averages based the data updated daily by the ADPH.