Alabama’s COVID-19 case numbers had been declining recently, but that’s taken a turn for the worse in the past few weeks.

Like much of the country, Alabama has seen increases in the moving averages of new cases per day, with the 7-day average now at 1,183.57 per day and the 14-day average at 1,147.57. Hospitalizations also have spiked to more than 1,000 for the first time in two months.

The cumulative total of positive tests as of Wednesday had risen to 187,706. Of those, 160,380 are confirmed cases and the rest are probable.

The moving averages of new daily cases are now at their highest levels since early September, though they still are still well below the peaks of July, when the state was averaging just fewer than 2,000 new cases per day. The 7-day average has increased by 41.8% since its most recent low on Sept. 12, and the 14-day average is up by 29.3% over its low on Sept. 19.

Those higher numbers were calculated by BirminghamWatch after taking into account recent periodic spikes in the numbers of cases reported by the Alabama Department of Public Health that were caused because some laboratories had submitted a large number of backlogged older test results.

For instance, last week, two days of sharp spikes in the numbers were due to a dump of case reports dating back as far as August. Using additional ADPH data, BirminghamWatch was able to account for the old cases separately and adjust those daily totals downward to accurately calculate moving averages for the past two weeks.

There also are unwelcome trends upward in the statewide number of hospitalizations and the positivity rate — the percentage of total tests that return positive results.

For the first time since the end of August, the number of COVID-19 patients occupying hospital beds is above the 1,000 mark. Wednesday’s report showed 1,013 hospitalized patients, with a 7-day average of 941.17. The total is up 44% from a recent low on Sept. 25.

The 14-day moving average of the positivity rate has climbed to an all-time high of 20.73%, which means more than one out of every five people who took a coronavirus test in that period were found to be positive for the virus.

While the number of new positive cases has been on the increase, the spike in the positivity rate also can be attributed in part to fewer tests being administered over the past two weeks. The current percentage is more than four times the 5% level that immunology experts consider to be the maximum goal.

The number of currently active cases has risen to 79,442 as of Oct. 21, the most recent count available. That number is up by almost 6,000 from the previous week.

But the data does show some relatively good news in the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19. The moving averages of daily deaths are in decline after a rise over the first half of October, with the 7-day average at 11.86 deaths per day and the 14-day average standing at 12.48. The 7-day mark had been as high as 23.29 a little more than a week ago.

In total, Alabama has had 2,911 reported deaths since the pandemic’s outset, with 2,713 of those confirmed and 198 probable.

Alabama’s upward COVID-19 trends are similar to those in other states, with several in the northern Great Plains seeing severe spikes. Wisconsin currently reports more than 10,000 people hospitalized by COVID-19, with more than 5,200 new cases on Tuesday. Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota have also seen surges in new cases.

The pandemic has also affected major sports events. The Wisconsin Badgers have canceled their Big Ten Conference game Saturday against Nebraska after head coach Paul Chryst and 11 others with the program tested positive. The 2021 edition of the Boston Marathon has been postponed from April until at least next fall.

Closer to home, Jefferson County has had 23,769 cases since the pandemic began, with 965 new cases in the past week. The county’s death toll now stands at 383, with seven added in the past week. The county positivity rate is up to 13.52%, the highest recorded in the past two months.

BirminghamWatch’s analysis of COVID-19 data is taken from reports by the ADPH on its COVID-19 daily reports web page and its online dashboard.

Here are total cases, tests conducted and deaths in each county, as reported by the ADPH:

Autauga			2103	14273	31
Baldwin			6743	57469	69
Barbour			1045	5987	9
Bibb			856	6511	15
Blount			1988	12366	25
Bullock			650	3031	17
Butler			1015	5033	41
Calhoun			4689	32710	62
Chambers			1370	9829	47
Cherokee			761	5372	14
Chilton			1909	10418	32
Choctaw			394	1753	12
Clarke			1380	7475	17
Clay			758	3904	12
Cleburne			577	2718	9
Coffee			1826	14809	11
Colbert			2082	14465	32
Conecuh			565	2603	13
Coosa			214	1774	3
Covington			1767	9763	29
Crenshaw			611	3412	30
Cullman			2600	21378	25
Dale			1808	14464	52
Dallas			1881	11132	27
DeKalb			3512	18172	29
Elmore			3265	23718	58
Escambia			1753	9011	31
Etowah			4365	31905	52
Fayette			594	4373	13
Franklin			2077	9170	32
Geneva			935	6699	7
Greene			346	2385	16
Hale			780	5554	30
Henry			728	5100	6
Houston			4212	37124	34
Jackson			2219	16882	17
Jefferson			23769	232261	383
Lamar			516	3436	5
Lauderdale			2371	22354	43
Lawrence			877	5095	33
Lee			6624	51942	65
Limestone			2951	20417	31
Lowndes			717	2805	28
Macon			541	4082	20
Madison			9467	104948	98
Marengo			1035	6998	22
Marion			1103	7194	31
Marshall			4452	26595	51
Mobile			17039	113612	318
Monroe			660	4898	10
Montgomery			10435	60321	199
Morgan			4263	28983	35
Perry			596	3324	6
Pickens			874	6056	18
Pike			1355	9638	14
Randolph			843	5000	16
Russell			1976	12345	3
St. Clair			3070	23987	42
Shelby			7563	65580	65
Sumter			477	2925	21
Talladega			2739	20228	37
Tallapoosa			1353	12028	87
Tuscaloosa			10539	80964	141
Walker			2855	18255	93
Washington			754	3945	12
Wilcox			571	2781	12
Winston			943	6169	13
	Cases: 187706	Tested (Diagnostic & Antibody): 1411908					Deaths: 2911