A decrease in the number of new positive COVID-19 test results per day is spurring tentative hope that the pandemic is starting to take a turn for the better in Alabama.

The 7-day and 14-day averages in new cases have trended downward over the period ending Aug. 5, and for the first time in a month, the raw number of new cases has fallen below 1,000 for two straight days.

In BirminghamWatch’s weekly analysis of data reported by the Alabama Department of Public Health, the 7-day moving average is 1,457.71 per day. That’s a decrease of 136 cases from the week before and almost 393 fewer than the high on July 19.

The longer-term 14-day average is at 1,667.64, a reduction of 141.71 from the week prior.

In percentage terms, the number of new positives increased by an average of 1.67% per day over the past seven days. The peak was 3.18% on July 15. On Wednesday, the increase was just under 1%, the first time it has been below that line in more than two months.

The total of positive cases statewide stands at 91,776, an increase of 10,204 cases from seven days ago. The doubling rate — the time needed for the cumulative total to double — has lengthened from 33 to 39.2 days, the lowest rate since an early June peak. Last week, the total number of cases was expected to cross the 100,000 mark by Aug. 6, but the trend now pushes that projection out another six days, to Aug 12.

The daily positivity rate — the percentage of positive results diagnosed among all those tested — reached a peak earlier in the week of more than 20%, but since then the 7-day average has dropped to 17.44%, a bit less than two percentage points down over the period. The positivity rate has been used recently by several states as a measure of whether travelers from another state should be quarantined upon entry. In the past week, Kentucky has joined the list of states that want people coming from Alabama to self-quarantine, though Gov. Andy Beshear’s order does not mandate such action, unlike other orders from New York, New Jersey and the District of Columbia.

The 7-day average of tests administered fell slightly to 7,878.3; as of Wednesday, a total of 719,489 people in Alabama have been given COVID-19 tests.

The state’s COVID-19 death toll has risen to 1,639, up 150 from the previous week. The 7-day average of deaths reported each day is 21.43, which is down two per day compared to a week ago.

The 14-day moving average also increased slightly, to 22.43, up .5 since a week ago.

Death rates are typically a trailing indicator in that the trend typically lags behind new-case data by a couple of weeks, but both averages have stayed steady or fallen slightly in recent days.

Jefferson County continues to lead Alabama in the number of positive cases with 12,186, increasing by 1,496 (14.0%) in the past week. The county averaged 213.71 new cases per day. That average is up slightly from a week ago, but the rate of growth is slightly lower this week compared to last week.

Mobile County is second in the state for total cases, with, 9,269, an increase of 1,576 from last week. Mobile’s 7-day average is 225.14, up by 46.57 (+26%).

Montgomery County is third with 6,350 cases, up 465 (7.9%) from the week before. Madison County is fourth in total cases at 5,122, with a relatively large increase of 1,071 new cases in the period; its 7-day average jumped to 153, compared to 44.48 the week prior. Tuscaloosa County is fifth with 4,002 total cases, up by 308 for the period.

Jefferson County reported 22 new deaths in the week and has now totaled 230 deaths attributed to COVID-19, the highest in Alabama. Mobile County has had 204 deaths, with 24 last week, and Montgomery County reported 148, an increase of 10. Tallapoosa County is still fourth on the list with 78 deaths but with no new fatalities, and Tuscaloosa County has reported 69 deaths, adding eight from the previous week, to stand fifth statewide.

The number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients has fallen slightly statewide. As of Tuesday, ADPH reported 1,517 COVID-19 patients were in hospitals statewide. The 7-day moving average is 1,578 patients. The 7-day average of new hospitalizations stood at 172.43 as of Tuesday, down by 21 patients per day from a week ago.