The number of new positive COVID-19 cases in Alabama continues to rise at a pace that concerns some health officials.

Of the 21,626 confirmed cases in Alabama since the pandemic began, 34.89 percent have been diagnosed in the past two weeks, according to data updated daily by the Alabama Department of Public Health.

In addition, 363 people are listed as having “probable” cases of COVID-19, meaning they have symptoms and have been in close contact with someone who has the disease, but there are not yet test results verifying or disputing the diagnosis.

In the past week, the seven-day moving average of new daily cases has jumped from 360.29 on June 3 to 438.86 this Wednesday.

That’s still lower than the 518.71 seven-day average on May 29, the all-time high since BirminghamWatch began calculating moving averages on March 19. That average was bolstered by the high number of new cases reported that day alone — 771 — followed by just 58 the next day, when the health department began reporting probable cases separately.

A computer glitch at about that time or shortly afterward added to volatility during the past two weeks. Department officials said that “an overwhelmed national surveillance system” slowed the reporting of cases for several days, causing an undercount during that time period. The number of new positive cases and deaths attributed to COVID-19 varied widely for about a week out of the past two weeks.

Looking at a 14-day moving average for the period ending June 10 smooths out the volatility. An average of just less than 400 new cases were recorded daily over that period.

More Deaths, Too

Likewise, the number of deaths attributed to the virus has trended upward this week in both the seven-day and 14-day moving averages. The death toll now stands at 739, an increase of 88 over the past seven days. Another five deaths are listed as probable as of Wednesday, a number that fluctuates as individual deaths are ruled to have been caused by the virus or not.

Both the seven-day and 14-day moving averages inched beyond 10 deaths per day as of Monday. The seven-day average finished the period at 12.57, and the 14-day average was 11.14 deaths per day. The 14-day average reached a peak of 14.14 per day on May 17.

The number of people tested for COVID-19 in Alabama rose to 272,694, with 87,516 new tests over the past 14 days, according to the ADPH COVID-19 online dashboard. Of the overall tests, 10.2% were positive for the week ending June 6, falling from 10.7% the previous week.

The dashboard also shows that 13,508 of those who tested positive are presumed to have recovered. ADPH arrives at that number by counting cases in which “it has been 14 days or more since the case tested positive if they were not hospitalized, or if it has been 32 days or more since the case tested positive if they were hospitalized or if hospitalization was unknown,” according to the dashboard. However, individuals can recover at a faster or slower pace than those averages.

The uptrends in this week’s data comes as health officials have expressed fears about a spike in cases caused by those gathering for protests of the death of George Floyd at the hands of a Minneapolis police officer. On Wednesday, Dr. Jodie Dionne-Odom of UAB said in a press conference that the state had been down to about 250 new cases a day, but after reopening businesses, restaurants and venues, the number has jumped back up to about 500 on many days. Now the fear is that the state will see another jump in cases because of the protests, and Dionne-Odom suggested protesters take COVID-19 precautions at such large gatherings.

County by County

In county-by-county data, Mobile County is still at the top in both positive cases and deaths. The county has reported 2,545 cases and 127 deaths.

Montgomery County is next with 2,290 cases. However, the state capital’s death toll counts just 61 deaths, fourth in the state.

Jefferson County is third in cases with 2,187, but it is second in deaths with 112.

Tuscaloosa County surpassed 1,000 positive cases and is now fourth overall, but with just 23 fatalities.

Marshall County remains fifth in cases, with 764, and has reported only nine deaths.

Tallapoosa County’s 66 deaths is third highest in the state, with many of those residents of the Bill Nichols State Veterans Home.

In the Birmingham area, Shelby County has 567 positive cases, eighth place statewide. Walker County has again seen a sharp jump to 481 cases, now ranking ninth statewide. St. Clair County is up to 149 cases, Bibb County has 89 and Blount County has 79. Shelby County reports 19 deaths, Walker tallies six and St. Clair two. Bibb and Blount counties held at one death each.

Here is the list of counties and their cases, tests conducted and deaths:

Autauga					295	2899	6
Baldwin					331	9759	9
Barbour					208	1039	1
Bibb					89	1599	1
Blount					79	2041	1
Bullock					248	791	8
Butler					471	1964	24
Calhoun					182	5034	3
Chambers					401	1901	26
Cherokee					42	1035	4
Chilton					118	1802	2
Choctaw					158	539	11
Clarke					163	1561	3
Clay					30	558	2
Cleburne					19	408	1
Coffee					250	2083	1
Colbert					219	3224	5
Conecuh					64	517	1
Coosa					41	345	1
Covington					92	1428	1
Crenshaw					96	893	3
Cullman					212	4087	1
Dale					141	1540	0
Dallas					375	2748	6
DeKalb					278	2872	5
Elmore					447	4368	9
Escambia					91	1493	3
Etowah					280	5974	12
Fayette					23	785	0
Franklin					634	2625	10
Geneva					46	763	0
Greene					107	630	5
Hale					210	1560	11
Henry					93	735	2
Houston					259	4453	5
Jackson					101	2725	3
Jefferson					2187	47155	112
Lamar					30	634	0
Lauderdale					196	4609	3
Lawrence					58	907	0
Lee					605	7733	35
Limestone					151	2783	0
Lowndes					307	940	13
Macon					105	975	5
Madison					413	18810	5
Marengo					192	1927	7
Marion					126	1422	12
Marshall					764	6543	9
Mobile					2545	25755	127
Monroe					79	1014	2
Montgomery					2290	13054	61
Morgan					456	5468	1
Perry					54	976	0
Pickens					128	1186	6
Pike					266	2231	1
Randolph					136	1090	8
Russell					236	2067	0
Shelby					567	11457	20
St. Clair					149	4388	2
Sumter					248	1161	10
Talladega					140	3797	5
Tallapoosa					451	3107	66
Tuscaloosa					1009	14660	23
Unknown or Out of State					N/A	0	N/A
Walker					481	4995	6
Washington					83	758	6
Wilcox					183	802	8
Winston					98	1512	0
	Cases: 21626	Tested: 272694	Deaths: 739